Pick Receipt

🏈CFB: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 (-115) Simply don't think it's worth it to pay the 20 or so cents to take +7 if we lose by 1 score. Model has this line at BYU -5, so there's still a 1.5 point value here in taking TCU. TCU has just been the team that everyone has hated so far this entire year. Week 1 everybody was on that juicy -7.5 spread for them to cover against UNC, and they lost outright. Then last week against UCF's backup QB they lost as well, with all of the money on them again. I just think TCU's defense keeps us in this one, they are 9th ranked in redzone efficiency, 7th in 3rd downs, allowing 12.5 points a game. Despite being 3-0 the Cougars' defense is not that good, they are 112th in third down conversions, which means if the Frogs can just keep sustained drives, we should be able to cover this. We just need the Frogs' offense to come alive for one game at home, TCU is 2-0 ATS at home where they have averaged around 45 points a game against some lesser known schools. According to the system, WEEK 5 NCAAF, Dogs with less rest are 16-2 ATS at home this week. 💜if you are tailing!