Pick Receipt

🏈NFL: New England Patriots +7 (-110) Just genuinely think this has moved way too much. My model has this line at 4.4, simply put I think the Pats will in fact keep it close. Each of their last 5 games scores (35-31, 23-20, 23-16, 24-21, and 27-21), are basically within 1 score. We know Drake Maye has been pretty bad with turnovers recently, however Buffalo just had a 5 turnover game at home, against the Chargers of all teams. We also don't know if Josh Allen will be 100%, during the later stages of the Chargers game, we saw his knee collide with a Helmet, hopefully he is okay, but I wouldn't mind if he played slower today. Also fading teams that are 3-0 ATS in the NFL is a good idea, it seems Vegas always wants regression, teams that are 3-0 ATS/SU are 13-20 ATS the following week if they are a 6+ point fav. Furthermore, the Bills are also 5-15 ATS against the Pats at home the past 20 seasons. Bill Vinovich will be the referee for this one, Since 2018 home teams are 54-76 ATS with him as the ref. ❤️if you are tailing!